Theory of Change

A description of how a program delivers results. Often a sequence of events moving from smaller goals to bigger goals.

They make a case for the causal effects of the program.

Results Chain

An example of a theory of change often used in grant applications.

  • inputs
  • activities
  • outputs
  • outcomes
  • final outcomes

When we look at a program, implementation refers to the activities in the program while results refer to the impacts of the program.

Evaluation Questions

  • well-defined and testable
  • usually looking for a clear difference between treatment group and the counterfactual

Indicators

These are the measurements you take. The SMART framework is often used.

  • specific
  • measureable
  • attributable/achievable
  • realistic/relevant
  • targeted/time-bound

Note that there are several definitions used for each of the letters. We will most often use the definition in the Gertler reference.

Beyond a Single Program

A theory of change is also useful to think about how several program or initiatives might contribute toward a large goal. These causal links can include indirect effects. For example, wider deployment of a new efficiency technology could shift attitudes and perceptions of the technology.