Theory of Change
A description of how a program delivers results. Often a sequence of events moving from smaller goals to bigger goals.
They make a case for the causal effects of the program.
Results Chain
An example of a theory of change often used in grant applications.
- inputs
- activities
- outputs
- outcomes
- final outcomes
When we look at a program, implementation refers to the activities in the program while results refer to the impacts of the program.
Evaluation Questions
- well-defined and testable
- usually looking for a clear difference between treatment group and the counterfactual
Indicators
These are the measurements you take. The SMART framework is often used.
- specific
- measureable
- attributable/achievable
- realistic/relevant
- targeted/time-bound
Note that there are several definitions used for each of the letters. We will most often use the definition in the Gertler reference.
Beyond a Single Program
A theory of change is also useful to think about how several program or initiatives might contribute toward a large goal. These causal links can include indirect effects. For example, wider deployment of a new efficiency technology could shift attitudes and perceptions of the technology.